Are Management Decisions Based on Gut Feeling or Data?

30.04.26

Gut Feeling Can Be Misleading in Management

On 27 April, Tallinn University hosted an Adapter Club event for entrepreneurs titled “Are Management Decisions Based on Gut Feeling or Data?”

The event focused on the quality of working life and the impact of management decisions. The panel discussion featured Tallinn University psychologists Kadi Liik, Piret Jamnes, Aleksander Pulver, and Antek Kasemaa. Entrepreneur Johanna Stina Haar from Claricy OÜ shared her experience of collaborating with Tallinn University psychologists. The discussion combined research-based perspectives with practical experience to explore how employees’ experiences within organisations are shaped. The conversation quickly extended to the audience, where participants’ questions and reflections brought entrepreneurs’ perspectives into the discussion.

At the heart of the event was a key question: What truly determines the quality of working life, and to what extent do managers understand the impact of their decisions?

One of the starting points was the widely held belief that people join organisations because of interesting work but leave because of their manager. The panel agreed that reality is more nuanced. Employees leave for a variety of reasons, influenced by life stages, personal expectations, and opportunities for development. Nevertheless, the discussion emphasised that managers play a crucial role in shaping employees’ experiences and can do a great deal to encourage people to remain committed members of their teams.

Aleksander Pulver highlighted the importance of understanding employees’ individual value systems:

“For one person, performance-based pay may be highly motivating, while for another it may even feel insulting.”

The quality of leadership lies in recognising these individual differences and adapting one’s management approach to what is meaningful for each person.

Quality of Working Life as an Employee’s Perceived Experience

“Quality of working life is, above all, the employee’s own perspective – their personal perception of what it is like to work in an organisation,” said Antek Kasemaa, emphasising that, unlike organisational culture or climate, it is fundamentally an individual experience.

Quality of working life is not simply a matter of working conditions or salary. Rather, it is a holistic experience of the organisation, encompassing how employees perceive leadership, collaboration, and their everyday working environment.

An important topic was the difference between managers’ and employees’ perceptions. Managers often assume that employees value the same aspects of work that they themselves consider important. However, both practice and research show that this is not always the case.

Kadi Liik shared findings from one of her studies in which senior management assumed that, because of challenging economic conditions, employees were dissatisfied primarily due to low salaries and were therefore considering leaving the organisation. The results revealed the opposite.

“Employees were nowhere near leaving, and they actually appreciated the pay system because it was transparent and salaries were always paid on time.”

This illustrates a common attribution bias: we tend to interpret other people’s behaviour through our own perspective. The discussion therefore stressed the importance of asking questions and gathering evidence rather than making assumptions.

Research for the Sake of Research?

Piret Jamnes pointed out that the main challenge with surveys and assessments is not whether organisations conduct them, but how the results are actually used. While many organisations collect data and carry out various assessments, they often fail to consider how the findings will be translated into practice.

“If you use personality assessments, you gain an understanding of how people are wired, but as a manager you must also learn how to apply that knowledge appropriately,” Jamnes explained.

According to her, modern leadership increasingly requires an individualised approach, which in turn demands the ability to interpret research findings and apply them in everyday management. Too often, managers assume that someone else – such as an HR specialist – will take responsibility for this, even though direct managers are the ones who interact with employees on a daily basis.

The discussion also explored team dynamics. One key conclusion was that the best teams are not created simply by bringing together the highest-performing individuals. Team performance depends not on individual excellence alone, but on the interaction between team members. The most successful teams tend to be those characterised by psychological safety – an environment where people feel comfortable expressing opinions, making mistakes, and sharing ideas that are still under development. Such an atmosphere encourages collaboration and reduces internal competition.

Evidence-Based Practice as a Foundation for Better Decisions

Management decisions are often guided by experience and intuition. However, in increasingly complex environments, intuition alone may not be sufficient. An evidence-based approach does not make decisions on behalf of managers, but it helps them understand, justify, and improve the quality of those decisions.

Entrepreneur Johanna Stina Haar illustrated this through her collaboration with psychologists at Tallinn University. Their research focused on how personality traits influence financial behaviour. The findings showed that people who tolerate uncertainty better tend to make more effective decisions and adapt more quickly to changing circumstances.

The research also demonstrated that individuals perceive losses differently. For some, a loss represents a personal failure; for others, it is simply a natural part of the process. Understanding these differences enables financial advisers to provide more personalised and effective guidance.

Bringing Together Two Perspectives

The event concluded with the idea that leadership always involves two perspectives: the manager’s understanding of reality and the employee’s lived experience.

“There are always two perspectives: how I believe things are, and how the employee actually experiences them.”

The quality of leadership depends on how consciously managers recognise and bridge the gap between these two perspectives. This requires self-reflection, continuous feedback, and a willingness to question one’s own assumptions.

The quality of working life does not emerge by chance. It is something that can be deliberately shaped, with people – their experiences, expectations, and sense of meaning – at its centre.

The expertise of Tallinn University’s psychologists helps organisations better understand the factors that shape working life and human behaviour. The university welcomes new opportunities for collaboration with organisations and businesses.